India Monsoon 2026 Ends With 15% Rainfall Deficit, Recovery Unlikely
India’s southwest monsoon is entering its final phase with a 15 per cent rainfall deficit, leaving limited time for significant recovery before withdrawal.
India’s 2026 southwest monsoon has entered its final phase with the country still facing a 15 per cent rainfall deficit. Between June 1 and September 20, India received 699.7 mm of rain against the normal 822 mm, according to the latest rainfall data from the India Meteorological Department.
The window for a major recovery is now shrinking as the monsoon is expected to begin withdrawing from large parts of northwest India within the next five to seven days. Once the southwest monsoon retreats, widespread rainfall becomes less likely and recovery depends more on individual weather systems.
Delhi-NCR is also nearing the end of its monsoon season, with weather models indicating limited chances of significant rainfall through the rest of September.
Parts of Uttar Pradesh and Bihar could still receive a stronger spell of rain between September 25 and 28, potentially offering some late-season relief. However, the impact on the national deficit will depend on how widespread and intense the rainfall is.
Several central and eastern states have recorded rainfall close to normal, while Rajasthan, Punjab, Haryana, Telangana, Andhra Pradesh, Karnataka and Kerala remain among areas facing deficits.
The next 10 days could therefore be crucial, but erasing a 15 per cent national shortfall this late in the season would require some serious rainfall drama. The monsoon calendar, unfortunately, is not known for last-minute extensions.
