India Monsoon Withdrawal 2026: Rainy Season Begins Retreat from September 19
India’s southwest monsoon is expected to begin withdrawing from west Rajasthan around September 19 as dry air and changing atmospheric conditions signal the seasonal transition.
India’s southwest monsoon is entering its withdrawal phase, with the process expected to begin in parts of west Rajasthan around September 19, according to the India Meteorological Department. The retreat will gradually spread eastward and southward, with the monsoon typically withdrawing from most parts of the country by early October.
The IMD declares the start of withdrawal when three conditions are met: rainfall stops for five consecutive days, dry air becomes established and a high-pressure system develops in the lower atmosphere. These changes gradually replace moist monsoon winds with drier northwesterly winds.
A significant incursion of dry air is expected over northwest and west India after September 19-20. Rajasthan, Punjab, Haryana, Gujarat and nearby areas could see declining rainfall and humidity, along with clearer skies. Temperatures may rise temporarily as cloud cover reduces.
However, rainfall is expected to continue in parts of central and eastern India. A low-pressure area may develop over the Andaman Sea as a weather system moves from Thailand towards the region, potentially keeping rainfall active in some areas and delaying complete monsoon withdrawal beyond September.
As of September 17, India had recorded rainfall 15% below its long-term average, with northwest India facing about a 10% deficit. The shortfall is unlikely to be fully recovered before the monsoon season ends.
The transition will therefore be gradual, with some regions experiencing rain for another week or two while drier conditions spread across the northwest.
