India Rice Production May Fall 6.5% as Weak Rains Hit Yields
India’s rice production could drop by around 10 million tonnes this year as rainfall deficits reduce yields, although record stocks may support exports.
India’s rice production could decline by around 10 million metric tonnes this year as below-normal rainfall during the crop’s maturation period affects yields. Industry estimates suggest production may fall nearly 6.5% from last year’s record 154 million tonnes, marking the sharpest decline since the 2009-10 drought.
The prolonged dry spell has reduced yield potential in several eastern and southern rice-growing states. India has received 15% less rainfall than normal since the monsoon began on June 1, while the deficit in some major rice-producing states has reached 42%. The area under summer-sown rice was also nearly 4% lower than a year earlier at 42.68 million hectares as of September 11.
The production outlook could put upward pressure on domestic rice prices and make Indian exports more expensive, particularly as prices in other major exporting countries such as Thailand and Vietnam have also risen. Farmers growing premium varieties may receive higher open-market prices, potentially reducing government procurement.
However, India has a substantial buffer against an immediate export shortage. Rice stocks, including unmilled paddy, stood at a record 59.6 million tonnes on September 1, significantly above the government’s October 1 target of 10.3 million tonnes.
These inventories could allow India to maintain rice exports despite lower production. However, weaker output and potentially reduced winter planting could keep domestic prices under pressure in the coming months.
