New GDP Series Lifts FY26 Growth Estimate to 7.6%

India’s economy is now projected to grow at 7.6% in 2025-26 under a revised GDP data series released by the National Statistics Office.

The updated figures, based on a new base year of 2022-23, show stronger performance in manufacturing and services compared to earlier estimates.

Growth Revised Upward

According to the second advance estimates, GDP growth for the current fiscal year is higher than the earlier 7.4% projection released in January under the 2011-12 base series.

The revised estimate is also above the Reserve Bank of India projection of 7.4%.

For the October–December quarter, the economy grew by 7.8%. While this was lower than the upwardly revised 8.4% growth recorded in the July–September quarter, officials described the pace as robust.

Resilience Amid Global Uncertainty

Chief Economic Adviser V Anantha Nageswaran said the economy has remained resilient despite global trade and geopolitical tensions.

He noted that three consecutive years of growth above 7% indicate macroeconomic stability. Projections for FY27 have also been adjusted upward to a 7%–7.4% range under the new series.

What Has Changed in the New Series?

Statistics Secretary Saurabh Garg said the revised GDP series reflects structural changes in the economy.

The update incorporates new data sources, improved estimation methods, and expanded coverage, including better representation of the informal sector. The goal, officials said, is to improve accuracy and align calculations with global standards.

The government has also updated other datasets in recent months. Retail inflation data now uses a new base year of 2024, and the Index of Industrial Production (IIP) is set to shift to a 2022-23 base year.

Manufacturing Sees Strong Improvement

The revised data indicates significant improvement in manufacturing performance. In the third quarter of FY26, manufacturing grew by 13.3%, compared with 10.8% in the same period a year earlier.

Economists suggest that the previous series may have underestimated growth in this key sector.

Revised Historical Figures

Under the new series:

• GDP growth for 2023-24 has been revised to 7.2%, compared to 9.2% under the old series.

• For 2024-25, growth has been revised upward to 7.1% from 6.5% in the earlier series.

Quarterly data for the April–June and July–September periods has also been revised accordingly.

Broader Implications

The updated GDP numbers aim to provide a clearer picture of India’s economic trajectory. Officials say the revisions reflect structural shifts in the economy and offer improved measurement quality.

With the 7.6% growth projection for FY26, India continues to position itself among the fastest-growing major economies globally.