Super El Nino Could Cause 4.51 Lakh Heat Deaths Globally
A Climate Impact Lab estimate projects 4.51 lakh additional heat-related deaths globally between September 2026 and February 2027 as El Nino strengthens.
A developing El Nino could lead to an estimated 4.51 lakh additional heat-related deaths worldwide between September 2026 and February 2027, according to a new Climate Impact Lab estimate. The figure represents deaths above the number researchers would expect during an average year, using 1996–2025 as the baseline.
The projected impact is expected to be concentrated in the Global South. The Sahel could record around 66,800 additional heat-related deaths, including 31,400 in Nigeria, 17,500 in Sudan, 10,000 in Niger and 8,000 in Chad. Southeast Asia could also face a significant impact, with Indonesia alone estimated at 19,300 additional deaths and the Philippines, Vietnam, Thailand and Cambodia together at around 19,400.
India’s projected additional heat-related deaths stand at 15,800 during the six-month period. Researchers have suggested measures including heat alerts, cooling centres, hydration facilities, protection for outdoor workers and stronger healthcare capacity to reduce the impact.
The World Meteorological Organisation has said El Nino is expected to strengthen further, potentially peaking around November and December, while its influence could continue through February 2027. Climate researchers also expect heat-related deaths in countries such as India and Pakistan to rise further as the region enters its next summer.
With global temperatures already at record levels, the coming months could turn extreme heat from a seasonal problem into an even bigger public-health challenge.
