2026 Monsoon: Why India Saw Uneven Rainfall Despite a Near-Normal Season
India’s 2026 monsoon may appear close to normal nationally, but large regional deficits, concentrated rainfall and intense short-duration downpours made the season highly uneven.
India’s 2026 monsoon may look “normal” on paper, but the reality was anything but uniform. Between June 4 and September 26, the country received 749.2 mm of rainfall against a normal 853.4 mm, leaving a 12% deficit, according to IMD data. Yet the national average hides major regional differences.
East and Northeast India recorded a 25% shortfall, South Peninsular India was down 23% and Northwest India saw a 9% deficit. Central India came closest to normal, with just a 1% shortfall. Some states faced much sharper gaps, including Meghalaya at 60%, Manipur at 44%, Punjab at 42%, Kerala at 27% and Karnataka at 29%. Meanwhile, Odisha received 31% more rain than normal.
The unusual distribution was driven partly by Bay of Bengal weather systems repeatedly tracking towards Odisha, Chhattisgarh and Madhya Pradesh instead of spreading rainfall across wider parts of the country. Several systems also remained relatively weak and lost strength after making landfall.
Weather patterns including El Nino, a largely neutral Indian Ocean Dipole and changing Madden-Julian Oscillation phases also influenced rainfall distribution.
Another defining feature was the intensity of rainfall. Long dry periods were often followed by short bursts of extremely heavy rain, increasing flood risks even in areas that ended the season with a deficit.
The 2026 monsoon shows why a national rainfall average cannot tell the complete story. For farmers, cities and water managers, when rain arrives, how intensely it falls and where it is distributed can matter just as much as the season's total.
