El Niño and India’s Winter: What Could 2026-27 Bring?
After a deficient 2026 monsoon, strengthening El Niño has raised questions about India’s winter. Experts say warmer conditions are possible, but rainfall and cold weather could vary sharply by region.
India’s deficient 2026 southwest monsoon has put the country on alert as El Niño conditions develop in the Pacific. The weather phenomenon can influence India’s climate, but its impact on winter is far from a simple “warm and dry” formula.
Historical data show that stronger El Niño events have sometimes coincided with warmer Indian winters. The 2015-16 season, for instance, saw unusually high temperatures and limited winter rainfall in several parts of the country. However, other atmospheric patterns can significantly alter the outcome.
Winter rainfall over northwestern India is strongly influenced by western disturbances, which bring rain to the plains and snowfall to the Himalayas. Changes in their behaviour can produce a very different regional response even when El Niño is present.
The monsoon record also shows why caution is needed. IMD data indicate that El Niño years have produced widely different rainfall outcomes, including the near-normal 1997 monsoon despite a strong El Niño.
For winter 2026-27, warmer-than-normal conditions may emerge in some regions, but the final pattern will depend on El Niño alongside Indian Ocean conditions, western disturbances and other atmospheric factors.
So, no, El Niño does not come with a one-size-fits-all weather setting. India’s winter forecast will be a little more complicated than simply reaching for the blanket or the water bottle.
